印度股市泡沫即將破滅？
Is India's Stock Market a Bubble About to Burst?
譯文簡介
我不確定股票是否估值過高,但印度的房地產(chǎn)絕對是被高估了，因為平均房價與美國的房屋成本相差無幾。大量未申報的資金正源源不斷涌入印度的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)。
正文翻譯
我不確定股票是否估值過高,但印度的房地產(chǎn)絕對是被高估了，因為平均房價與美國的房屋成本相差無幾。大量未申報的資金正源源不斷涌入印度的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)。
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@Happy-soul-96 (modified)
I don't know whether stocks are over valued or not. Indian real estate is definitely over value. Avg home cost is little less or more than cost of homes in usa. Insane amount of unaccounted money following into real estate sector in India.
我不確定股票是否估值過高,但印度的房地產(chǎn)絕對是被高估了，因為平均房價與美國的房屋成本相差無幾。大量未申報的資金正源源不斷涌入印度的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)。
No friend you are wrong. I tell you briefly why. In US you can live in hundreds of cities and still get a decent job. In India you have to move to some 5-6 cities for a job. So where is any Tamil going to by home, not in some beautiful coastal town,but in Chennai. Same with Mumbai, Gurgaon, Pune. In next 10 years crores of young people will move there so the prices are going to be increase. Supply is limited. Demand is not. Tell me where is any Telugu NRI who wants to invest going to buy. Not in machlipuram, but in Hyderabad. Any one in UP who gets rich some how, wants to buy a house in Noida or Delhi.
朋友，你錯了。讓我簡單說明原因。在美國你生活在數(shù)百個城市中，仍然可以找到體面的工作，而在印度你只能搬去5-6個城市找工作。所以泰米爾人會在哪里買房？不會是某個美麗的海濱小鎮(zhèn)，而一定是金奈。孟買、古爾岡、浦那的情況也是如此。未來10年將有數(shù)千萬年輕人涌入這些城市，所以房價勢必會上漲。供給是有限的，而需求卻是無限的。告訴我哪個海外泰盧固裔投資者會買馬奇利帕特姆的房子？他們只會選擇海德拉巴。任何北方邦的暴發(fā)戶，都會想在諾伊達(dá)或德里購置房產(chǎn)。
And this is after US real estate being called overvalued. Indian real estate is obnoxiously high. This is where inheritance tax should be applied, especially for real estate mafia/families.
這還是在人們已經(jīng)認(rèn)為美國房地產(chǎn)被高估的情況下。印度房地產(chǎn)的價格簡直高得離譜，這正是應(yīng)該征收遺產(chǎn)稅的領(lǐng)域，特別是針對那些房地產(chǎn)黑手黨/家族。
the real estate is overvalued because the capital is mostly provided by rich Indians or nris who are just speculating for gains. it have become an speculation vehicle without any grounding to actual spending power of indian people.
房地產(chǎn)被高估是因為資金主要來自富裕的印度人或海外印裔，他們純粹是為了投機(jī)獲利。這已經(jīng)變成了一種投機(jī)工具，與印度民眾的實際購買力完全脫節(jié)。
The inequality of wealth in India is now showing in the form of decreasing consumer demand.
印度日益嚴(yán)重的財富不平等正通過消費(fèi)需求下降的形式顯現(xiàn)出來。
In the past 7 days, he just suggested over 15 stocks in unlisted, defense, market crash, etc., and kept saying, Think long-term. How can we trust him if he keeps changing his stock every month and saying it is looking attractive ?
過去7天里，他就推薦了超過15只未上市的股票，包括國防股、崩盤概念股等，他還一直說"要長期持有"。如果他每個月都換股票還說看起來很誘人，我們怎么能相信他？
I don't seem to wrap my head around these terms, and that's why i just leave it to the market experts to handle.
我實在搞不懂這些專業(yè)術(shù)語，所以干脆交給市場專家去處理。
Bloomberg should worry about the US stock market. Look at the P/E ratios of most of the US companies and look at the Indian economy's growth rate. It is the most populous country with still a huge potential for growth. Nothing in the world can compare to the Indian opportunity.
彭博社應(yīng)該多擔(dān)心美國股市?？纯创蠖鄶?shù)美國公司的市盈率，再看看印度經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長率。作為人口最多的國家，印度仍然具有巨大的增長潛力。世界上沒有什么能比得上印度的機(jī)會。
20 percent Stcg and 15 percent ltcg tax is dragging Market down. No one is confidant that taxation will not grow further
20%的短期資本利得稅和15%的長期資本利得稅正在拖累市場，沒有人敢保證稅率不會進(jìn)一步提高。
FII sold heavily, about 50 billion still they could bring down index only 15%. This month they had to short cover.
外國機(jī)構(gòu)投資者大規(guī)模拋售約500億美元，卻只讓指數(shù)下跌了15%。這個月他們不得不回補(bǔ)空頭。
India is just starting..here 4-5 % people invest.. imagine when 50% start like USA.. bloomberg has no idea
印度才剛剛起步...這里只有4-5%的人投資...想象一下當(dāng)像美國那樣50%的人都投資時會如何...彭博社根本不懂印度。
50% are mainly just 401k accounts. Just because only 5% of indians have investment account doesn't mean its not overvalued.
50%主要是401k賬戶。不能僅僅因為只有5%的印度人有投資賬戶就說市場沒有被高估。
Markets have already corrected and we have seen whole 7 month bear market so, thank you for your biased reporting
市場已經(jīng)調(diào)整過了，我們經(jīng)歷了整整7個月的熊市，所以謝謝你有偏見的報道。
They are not biased that are pure liars. No journalist with self respect would continue to work for these guys
他們不是偏見，根本就是騙子。任何有自尊心的記者都不會繼續(xù)為這些人工作。
India's big bull market just started.... Retail people should invest more and should not miss the bus..
印度的大牛市才剛剛開始......散戶應(yīng)該加大投資，不要錯過這班車..
Investors overestimate Indian economy. Indian companies under-deliver their profits. Yes, the investment is a bubble.
投資者高估了印度經(jīng)濟(jì)。印度公司的利潤表現(xiàn)不佳。是的，這就是個投資泡沫。
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Remember guys this video is the point where the current lows will be made. You should start buying now.
記住，伙計們，這個視頻發(fā)布的時候就是市場觸底的時候，你們現(xiàn)在就應(yīng)該開始買入。
I haven't seen Bloomberg do a similar video when it comes to Nasdaq, every tech share out there in the US is in historical bubble range PE but but India is overvalued when it has 10x the growth potential sheerly because of its low scale compared to China or US.
我從來沒有見過彭博社對納斯達(dá)克做過類似的視頻，美國每只科技股的市盈率都處于歷史泡沫區(qū)間，而印度僅因為規(guī)模比中美小就被說成估值過高，盡管它有10倍的增長潛力。
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I'm probably naive but I would be inclined to believe that a crash in the US would induce a harder crash in some emerging economies due to the proportion of foreign investment and how much the growing service sector GDP share is tied to US tech companies, latter of which is especially critical in India's case.
The amount of traders and money that flows from and within the US is an anomaly too.
可能我太天真，但我傾向于認(rèn)為美國崩盤會導(dǎo)致一些新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體崩得更慘，因為外資占比太高，而且服務(wù)業(yè)占GDP的比重越來越大，這部分與美國科技公司關(guān)系密切，對印度來說尤其關(guān)鍵。
來自美國和美國內(nèi)部的交易者和資金流動量也是個異?，F(xiàn)象。
If you gamble, get ready to wiped out. The average PE of Nifty Index right now is approx 21-22 which is well below the 10 year historical average of 25. If you are buying profit making companies with reasonable valuations then you are doing great. Such a basic thing to know if you are in stock markets.
如果你在賭博，就要做好血本無歸的準(zhǔn)備。目前Nifty指數(shù)的平均市盈率約21-22倍，遠(yuǎn)低于25倍的10年歷史均值。如果你買入的是估值合理的盈利公司，那就做得很好。這是股市投資的基本常識。
Overall, 51% of traders anticipate that this year will be favorable for stocks, mutual funds, and other equity-based investments, despite the high returns currently offered by Treasury yields and other safer, cash-like options. I'm actively seeking market opportunities that could generate $1 million ahead of my retirement target in 2025.
總體而言，51%的交易者預(yù)計今年股票、共同基金和其他權(quán)益類投資將表現(xiàn)良好，盡管國債的收益率和其他類似現(xiàn)金的安全選項目前正在提供高回報。我正在積極尋找市場機(jī)會，爭取在2025年退休目標(biāo)前賺到100萬美元。
There is no bubble.
First-generation Indians, post 1947, focused more on stability, like buying houses, gold etc. So now, the next generation of Indians, armed with the stability provided by their parents of a roof over their head, see it best suited to invest in the market, to grow, along with its country.
Furthermore, DAX, the German index has literally doubled in the past year, but I dont see anyone calling that a bubble?
Why is it that when an Asian, or South-East Asian country grows financially, its often seen with the outlook of, "Oh, is that a bubble?"
I smell something, and its not equality.
根本不存在泡沫。
1947年后第一代印度人更注重穩(wěn)定性，比如買房買黃金等。而現(xiàn)在，在父母提供了住房保障的情況下，新一代印度人認(rèn)為最適合的投資方式就是進(jìn)入股市，與國家共同成長。
況且，德國的DAX指數(shù)過去一年實際上翻了一番，怎么沒有人說那是泡沫？
為什么每當(dāng)亞洲或東南亞國家金融發(fā)展時，人們總是用"哦，這是泡沫嗎？"的眼光看待？
我聞到了什么味道，而且絕對不是公平的味道。
The only bubble is US stock market. US is 30% of global GDP but 70% of Global Market Cap. It's inflated beyond any logical understanding. My suggestion, sell us and come to India (Just 1%) . More than that would be too much money for Indian Markets
真正的泡沫是美國股市。美國占全球GDP的30%卻占全球市值的70%，這種膨脹已經(jīng)超出任何合理的理解。我的建議是：賣出美股，轉(zhuǎn)投印度（只需1%，再多的話印度市場就承受不了了）。
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US companies are more valued because people trust their life savings in US financial markets more than any other place. There's barely any corruption or random shock events
美國公司估值更高是因為人們更愿意將畢生積蓄托付給美國的金融市場，那里幾乎沒有腐敗或突發(fā)性沖擊事件。
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Major issue is Regulatory body SEBI of Indian stock market!
There are many scams happening in market and SEBI failed to take strict actions on guilty rich people.
Retail invester is always getting thugged by fraudsters and SEBI's inaction.
On the other side, Indian Government is using retail investers as cash cow and putting heavy tax on stock market income.
主要的問題在于印度股市監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)SEBI！
市場上詐騙頻發(fā)，但SEBI卻未能對犯罪的富人采取嚴(yán)厲的措施。
散戶投資者總是被騙子坑害，而SEBI無所作為。
另一方面，印度政府把散戶投資者當(dāng)提款機(jī)，對股市收益課以重稅。
India needs IT, strong supply chain management for vibrant economy and business, a higher standard of Real Estate development where common person can a nice home
印度需要IT產(chǎn)業(yè)、強(qiáng)大的供應(yīng)鏈管理來振興經(jīng)濟(jì)和商業(yè)，還需要更高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)讓普通百姓也能住上好房子。
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Look whose market is a bubble, Look who has the most debt to gdp, look who has the most external debt percentage, look at the market cap to gdp of countries, look who is entering into recession, LOOK.
看看誰的股市才是泡沫，看看誰的債務(wù)與GDP的比率最高，看看誰的外債比例最大，看看各國的市值與GDP的比率，看看誰正在步入衰退，好好看看吧。
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Ahhh Chandni chowk, old delhi and crowded CST station, the only thing missing is that evergreen sitar music.... Would have been perfect for a video on Indian Stock Market. How awesome.
啊，月光集市、舊德里和擁擠的CST車站，唯一缺少的就是那永恒的西塔琴音樂了...這本該是制作印度股市視頻的完美素材。太棒了。
1:23 - Trading accounts in India are at 200 Million.
Sounds like a big number but the adult population in India is somewhere between 70% to 75%. Roughly 1 billion+ adults and about 200 million accounts likely covering multiple accounts by a single person and at least some accounts being minor accounts managed by their parents / guardians. This means that there is at least a 3X - 4X more growth in the number of accounts left.
If there is a bubble right now, then it is only going to rapidly expand while occasionally popping and reforming.
1分23秒 - 印度的交易賬戶達(dá)2億個。
雖然聽起來很多，但印度的成年人口約占70%-75%，大約有10億+成年人，約2億賬戶可能包括一人多戶，以及部分由父母/監(jiān)護(hù)人管理的未成年人賬戶。這意味著賬戶的數(shù)量至少還有3-4倍的增長空間。
如果現(xiàn)在有泡沫，那它只會快速膨脹，偶爾破裂后又會重新形成。
You didn't address the recent low returns in bank FD rates. people have no other option but to invest in stocks.
你們沒有提到銀行定期存款利率最近很低。人們別無選擇，只能投資股市。
A perfect all the negatives about India and india market.... They are doing what they do best pull down
視頻完美羅列了印度和印度市場所有的負(fù)面因素...他們最擅長的就是唱衰。
given the amount of debt in the global financial system every stock market is a bubble waiting to burst.
考慮到全球金融體系的債務(wù)規(guī)模，每個股市都是等待破裂的泡沫。
The markets aren't overvalued on overall market levels. But, on an individual basis, I am seeing crazy valuations, which are 10 to even 50 times their fair values.
The P/B value of Nofty is around 3, and the market vide P/E is 20.48. Both these parameters are fairly valued or slightly undervalued. So, I don't find the market to be overvalued or overheated. Also, we are expected to see a next growth in the markets as the RBI is expected to lower Repo Rates, allowing for lower interest loans to businesses.
雖然從整體市場層面看估值并不高，但就個股而言，我看到了一些瘋狂的估值，達(dá)到了合理價值的10倍甚至50倍。
Nifty的市凈率約3倍，整體市盈率20.48倍，這兩個參數(shù)都顯示估值合理或略低。所以我不認(rèn)為市場整體被高估或過熱。而且隨著印度央行可能下調(diào)回購利率，企業(yè)貸款利息降低，預(yù)計市場將迎來新一輪增長。
Those who come to market for "only" profits they will eventually reach there but those who come to become something in markets go bust eventually
那些只為"賺錢"而來的人終會如愿，但那些想在市場"成就一番事業(yè)"的人最終都會破產(chǎn)。
16% market correction. Just 16%. A market Index (NSE) which went from 7600 。。。 lows to a high of almost 26300. 16% market correction is quite normal to be honest. Calling Indian stock market 'a Bubble About to Burst' on the basis of a mere 16% correction is wishful thinking at best. Not surprising this coming from a failed American economy and its propaganda wings working overtime.
16%的市場回調(diào)，僅僅16%。一個從"c病毒"低點(diǎn)7600漲到近26300高點(diǎn)的市場指數(shù)(NSE)，16%的回調(diào)說實話很正常。僅憑16%的回調(diào)就說印度股市是"即將破裂的泡沫"，充其量是一廂情愿。來自失敗的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)及其加班加點(diǎn)工作的宣傳機(jī)構(gòu)的這種論調(diào)并不令人意外。
The fact that real estate market is inaccessible to commoners should tell us a lot. The wealthy class knows about the stock bubble. They are parking their assets in the real estate, making it protected and pricing others out at the same time.
房地產(chǎn)對普通人遙不可及的事實很能說明問題。富裕階層知道股市有泡沫，他們把資產(chǎn)配置到房地產(chǎn)，既保值又讓其他人買不起。
Bear markets are never sweet in India they are BRUTAL and real economy has shrunk a lot.Most economy is financial now
印度的熊市從來都不溫和，而是殘酷的。印度的實體經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)大幅萎縮，現(xiàn)在大部分經(jīng)濟(jì)都是金融經(jīng)濟(jì)。
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The stock market is often manipulated, serving as a tool for money laundering, political funding, and other questionable financial activities that benefit the powerful at the expense of the common investor.
股市經(jīng)常被操縱，成為洗錢、政治獻(xiàn)金和其他可疑金融活動的工具，這些活動讓權(quán)貴受益，卻讓普通的投資者買單。
Overconfidence and over liquidity is going to make the bubble burst. Exports aren't rising. Declining consumption is becoming a cause of worry for the corporates. This is also leading to a tepid private investment.
過度自信和流動性過剩將導(dǎo)致泡沫破裂。出口沒有增長。消費(fèi)下降正成為企業(yè)擔(dān)憂的問題。這也導(dǎo)致私人投資疲軟。
The richest 100 families in India owned almost everything in India.
The stock mart is their playground.
They would play pump and dump.
Indias economy had not had great growth the last few decades.
It will zig zag along on the sideway .
印度最富有的100個家族幾乎擁有印度的一切。
股市是他們的游樂場。
他們玩著拉高出貨的把戲。
過去幾十年印度經(jīng)濟(jì)并沒有巨大的增長。
它只會在橫盤震蕩中曲折前進(jìn)。
To embrace India's unpredictability is to embrace her soul. India is a game of numbers and scale, not magnitude.
接受印度的不可預(yù)測性就是接受她的靈魂，印度是數(shù)字和規(guī)模而非體量的游戲。
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You're talking about Equity? i can sell my 3-acre farm land (Dhar jila madhya pradesh around 60-75 lac per acre price here) and buy around 100-acre farm land for the same amount in the USA (I saw a US farmer's video speaking about land prices going up, and did some calculations, and it was nothing compared to India!) Black money is really a deeper problem then people realize, almost all the black money in India is invested in property. it's stopping the masses from buying their dream house and owning property.
你們在說股票？我可以賣掉我3英畝的農(nóng)田(中央邦達(dá)爾縣，這里每英畝約60-75萬盧比)，用同樣的錢在美國買約100英畝農(nóng)田(我看過一個美國農(nóng)民談?wù)摰貎r上漲的視頻，計算后發(fā)現(xiàn)跟印度沒法比！)黑錢問題比人們意識到的更嚴(yán)重，印度幾乎所有的黑錢都投在了房地產(chǎn)上，這阻礙了大眾購買夢想住宅和擁有房產(chǎn)。
Whenever a westen media house publishes a story about India, we Indians brush it aside. But when housewives are getting into stock markets, we all need to worry
每當(dāng)西方媒體報道印度，我們印度人總是一笑置之。但當(dāng)家庭主婦都開始炒股時，我們所有人都該警惕了。
If Indians have money to invest it is too bad that it can't be directed toward improving infrastructure. Perhaps companies could raise money in the stock market to fund projects that would get paid back with rents of some kind.
如果印度人有投資的錢，卻不能用于改善基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施就太糟糕了。也許企業(yè)可以通過股市融資來投資項目，用某種租金收益來償還。
The funny thing is that this makes middle class Indians think they are finally a part of the financial system of the wealthy where they can make money from their savings, or inheritance. A few might but the vast majority will lose to large traders. Also, the gross extraction from the market will never be their favour. It is a mathematical impossibility.
可笑的是這讓印度中產(chǎn)以為他們終于進(jìn)入了富人的金融體系，可以通過儲蓄或遺產(chǎn)賺錢。雖然少數(shù)人可能成功，但絕大多數(shù)人會輸給大交易商。而且，從市場抽走的資金永遠(yuǎn)不會對他們有利，這在數(shù)學(xué)上就不可能。
I don't know but just last 5 days stock went up by 10% so I think the timing of the video is wrong
US stock Market is falling faster than anticipated
Indian and Chinese Market is growing
Less than 2% of Indians actually trade compare to 60% in US so there is lot to growth
Americans should be concerned of America more than India
我不知道，但就在過去5天股市漲了10%，所以我認(rèn)為這個視頻的時機(jī)不對。
美國股市的下跌速度比預(yù)期快。
印度和中國的市場在增長。
實際參與交易的印度人不到2%，而美國是60%，所以增長的空間很大。
美國人應(yīng)該多關(guān)心美國而不是印度。
In Russia, you can't buy options or futures unless you are a qualified investor, which means either you possess significant assets or have an economics degree. It's crazy that India has allowed to trade this stuff by anyone.
在俄羅斯，除非是合格的投資者(要么擁有大量資產(chǎn)，要么有經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)位)，否則不能買賣期權(quán)期貨。印度竟然允許任何人交易這些產(chǎn)品，這太瘋狂了。
aren't you guys late by a few months, fundamentals have somewhat corrected in last few months and market has been on a uptrend and it has accounted for Tariff threat as sectors with US exposure have not bounce back, trading is a problem but they cant be conflated by investors who invest for the long term
你們不是晚了幾個月嗎？基本面在過去幾個月已有所修正，市場處于上升趨勢，并且已經(jīng)消化了關(guān)稅威脅(對美國敞口大的板塊沒有反彈)。雖然交易是個問題，但不能與長期投資者混為一談。
There may be a time approaching where Indian markets get so much money poured in [causing them to be over valued] that we see a Japanese 1980s to 2020s slowdown in the Indian stock market
可能即將出現(xiàn)這樣的情況：大量資金涌入印度市場[導(dǎo)致估值過高]，使印度股市像日本1980年代到2020年代那樣陷入長期的低迷。
Whatever told in this video is 100% correct. but, this is just one side of coin and there's other side of coin that India is fastest growing economy in the world for years.
視頻說的100%正確，但這只是硬幣的一面，另一面是印度多年來一直是全球增長最快的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。
Rupee has bounced back, large companies have already corrected, speculative FnO trade are already all time low, Inflation is well below 4% and all other marco factors are now favorable.
So this video post by bloomberg is a few months late...
盧比已經(jīng)反彈，大公司已經(jīng)完成調(diào)整，投機(jī)性的期貨期權(quán)交易量處于歷史低位，通脹遠(yuǎn)低于4%，其他宏觀因素也都向好。
所以彭博社這個視頻發(fā)晚了幾個月...
A key thing this video has missed is the surge in the market since the crash in March 2020. Young investors saw how steadily the market rose since then and have gone all-in. Most other theories are anecdotal/BS.
視頻忽略了一個關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)：2020年3月崩盤后市場的暴漲。年輕的投資者看到此后市場穩(wěn)步上漲，于是全倉投入。其他大多數(shù)理論都是道聽途說/胡說八道。