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Tom Fuzery
Virtually zero chance.

幾乎為零的可能性。

There are many reasons why English is the lingua franca today. It’s widespread around the world. The British Empire was pretty effective at spreading it till the middle of the 20th century, making it official language for a huge part of the world population. Since the fall of the empire an other English speaking country, the US has been carrying the flag with even more energy, spreading it even further with business, culture, hard and soft power. It’s a nice addition that English is a very easy language to learn for half of the world, definitely way easier than some other languages that previously rivaled English.

英語之所以成為當(dāng)今的通用語言，原因有很多。它在全球范圍內(nèi)廣泛使用。大英帝國在 20 世紀(jì)中葉之前非常有效地傳播了英語，使其成為世界上很大一部分人口的官方語言。自大英帝國衰落后，另一個以英語為母語的國家——美國，以更大的動力繼續(xù)推廣英語，通過商業(yè)、文化以及硬實力和軟實力將其傳播得更遠(yuǎn)。此外，英語對于世界上近一半的人來說都相對容易學(xué)習(xí)，遠(yuǎn)比之前曾與其競爭的某些語言要簡單得多。
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When we are looking at Mandarin it lacks just pretty much all the above drivers to become a global lingua franca. It’s limited to a very small number of countries that are all in Asia. It’s known language virtually only by ethnic Chinese people on other continents. Nobody else.

當(dāng)我們審視普通話時，它幾乎缺乏成為全球通用語的所有上述驅(qū)動因素。它僅限于少數(shù)幾個都在亞洲的國家。在其他大陸，幾乎只有華人會說這種語言。沒有其他人。

China itself isn’t a monolingual country either. While it’s the most spoken language but Mandarin actually is the lingua franca of the country.

中國本身也不是一個單一語言的國家。雖然普通話是使用人數(shù)最多的語言，但實際上它是中國的通用語。

Chinese is a famously tough language to learn. Not only the writing but also the tonality and the seemingly endless number of words that sound identical for the untrained ear.

中文是出了名的難學(xué)。不僅是書寫，還有聲調(diào)以及對于未經(jīng)訓(xùn)練的耳朵來說似乎無窮無盡的同音詞。

While the Chinese economic power is very strong, the soft power isn’t exactly robust. Exceptionally rare to see anything from the Chinese popular culture to gain any attention globally. Can’t compete not only the American but even the British as far as global reach is concerned. And this doesn’t help the popularity of the language either.

雖然中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)實力非常強大，但其軟實力并不強勁。極少看到中國的流行文化在全球范圍內(nèi)獲得任何關(guān)注。就全球影響力而言，它不僅無法與美國競爭，甚至無法與英國競爭。這也不利于中文的普及。
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Erwin
Zero.

零可能性。

Nobody is going to bother studying 3000 kanji to read Mandarin. I mean, maybe if they had a legion of anime and manga that people actually want to watch, read and understand some deranged weabs might bother.

沒有人會費心去學(xué)習(xí)3000個漢字來讀懂普通話。我的意思是，也許如果他們有大量人們真正想看、想讀和想理解的動漫和漫畫，一些瘋狂的二次元愛好者可能會費心。

But Chinese donghua and manwha are just not as good, and do not command anywhere near as much interest nor have as dedicated a following— the most popular cartoon in China isn’t even a donghua, it was Kimetsu no Yaiba. It is simply not worth the effort for most people to learn Mandarin.

但是中國的動畫和漫畫質(zhì)量不高，也沒有那么多的興趣，也沒有那么忠實的粉絲——中國最受歡迎的卡通甚至不是國產(chǎn)動畫，而是《鬼滅之刃》。對大多數(shù)人來說，學(xué)習(xí)普通話根本不值得付出努力。

America went through a phase last decade where they were sucking up to China so hard that every blockbuster movie had random Chinese actors showing up spouting untranslated Chinese that nobody understood and nobody other than the homecourt boys being pandered to gave a shit about. Thankfully we’re done with that phase, and it didn’t help spread Mandarin as the global lingua franca at all.

美國在過去十年經(jīng)歷了一個時期，他們極力討好中國，以至于每部大片里都會出現(xiàn)一些隨機(jī)的中國演員說著沒人聽懂的未翻譯的中文，除了那些被奉承的本土人士，沒人關(guān)心。謝天謝地，我們已經(jīng)結(jié)束了那個階段，這根本無助于將普通話傳播為全球通用語。

Derek Fei
How likely is Mandarin to surpass English as the global lingua franca?

普通話超越英語成為全球通用語的可能性有多大？

Mandarin Chinese, spoken by 1.14 billion native speakers , has gained significant attention as a potential challenger to English’s dominance. However, its prospects of replacing English as the global lingua franca remain highly improbable due to historical, structural, and practical constraints. Here’s a comprehensive analysis:

普通話擁有11.4億母語使用者，作為英語主導(dǎo)地位的潛在挑戰(zhàn)者，已引起廣泛關(guān)注。然而，由于歷史、結(jié)構(gòu)和實際的限制，普通話取代英語成為全球通用語的前景仍然非常渺茫。以下是全面的分析：
English’s Unmatched Global Infrastructure 英語無與倫比的全球基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施
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Linguistic Ecology: English is the official language of 70+ nations and the lingua franca of 80% of international organizations (e.g., UN, WTO). With 1.5 billion native speakers and 1 billion+ L2 learners , it dominates science, finance, and diplomacy.

語言生態(tài)：英語是70多個國家的官方語言，也是80%國際組織（如聯(lián)合國、世貿(mào)組織）的通用語。擁有15億母語使用者和超過10億的第二語言學(xué)習(xí)者，它在科學(xué)、金融和外交領(lǐng)域占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。

Academic and Technological Hegemony: 98% of top-tier scientific papers are published in English, while only 5% of Chinese-authored SCI papers use Mandarin . Programming languages (Python, Java) and global conferences (IEEE) reinforce its technical monopoly.

學(xué)術(shù)和技術(shù)霸權(quán)：98%的頂級科學(xué)論文以英語發(fā)表，而中國學(xué)者撰寫的SCI論文中只有5%使用普通話。編程語言（Python、Java）和全球會議（IEEE）進(jìn)一步鞏固了其技術(shù)壟斷地位。

Economic Network: 80% of international trade contracts are written in English, and multinational corporations like Apple and Google rely on it for global operations .

經(jīng)濟(jì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)：80%的國際貿(mào)易合同以英語書寫，蘋果和谷歌等跨國公司依賴英語進(jìn)行全球運營。
Mandarin’s Ascent: Economic and Policy Drivers 普通話的崛起：經(jīng)濟(jì)和政策驅(qū)動因素

Economic Powerhouse: China’s trade with Belt and Road countries reached ￥19.47 trillion in 2023, accounting for 46.6% of its total trade . This has fueled "workplace Mandarin" demand in Indonesia, Kazakhstan, and other regions, where Mandarin speakers earn 2-3 times more than non-speakers .

經(jīng)濟(jì)引擎：2023年中國與“一帶一路”國家的貿(mào)易額達(dá)到19.47萬億元人民幣，占中國外貿(mào)總額的46.6%。這刺激了印度尼西亞、哈薩克斯坦等地區(qū)對“工作場所普通話”的需求，在這些地區(qū)，普通話使用者的收入是非使用者的2-3倍。

Educational Expansion: Over 30 million people globally study Mandarin, with 85 countries integrating it into national curricula . Confucius Institutes operate in 100+ nations, adding 10 new branches in 2024 .

教育擴(kuò)張：全球有超過3000萬人學(xué)習(xí)普通話，85個國家將其納入國家課程。孔子學(xué)院在100多個國家運營，2024年新增10個分支機(jī)構(gòu)。

Digital Strategy: China’s "National Smart Education Platform" supports six UN languages, while platforms like TikTok and WeChat amplify Mandarin’s digital presence among youth .

數(shù)字戰(zhàn)略：中國的“國家智慧教育平臺”支持聯(lián)合國六種語言，而抖音（TikTok）和微信等平臺則擴(kuò)大了普通話在年輕人中的數(shù)字影響力。

Structural Barriers: Linguistics and Institutions

結(jié)構(gòu)性障礙：語言和制度

Learning Complexity: Mandarin’s tonal system (4-5 tones), logographic scxt (3,000+ characters), and grammatical flexibility pose steep challenges for non-native learners. English’s alphabetic simplicity and loanwords (e.g., "karaoke," "tsunami") facilitate faster acquisition .

學(xué)習(xí)復(fù)雜性：普通話的聲調(diào)系統(tǒng)（4-5個聲調(diào)）、語標(biāo)文字（3000多個漢字）和語法靈活性給非母語學(xué)習(xí)者帶來了巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。英語的字母文字簡單性和外來詞（如“karaoke”、“tsunami”）有助于更快地習(xí)得。

Institutional Inertia: English’s dominance is deeply tied to colonial history and U.S. hegemony. Even as China’s GDP grows, businesses and institutions retain English to minimize transaction costs. Huawei and Tencent, for example, conduct global operations in English.

制度慣性：英語的主導(dǎo)地位與殖民歷史和美國霸權(quán)密切相關(guān)。即使中國GDP增長，企業(yè)和機(jī)構(gòu)仍然保留英語以最大限度地降低交易成本。例如，華為和騰訊在全球運營中使用英語。

Political Frictions: Scrutiny of Confucius Institutes in the U.S. and India, coupled with narratives of "China threat," could hinder Mandarin’s soft power projection .

政治摩擦：美國和印度對孔子學(xué)院的審查，以及“中國威脅”論的出現(xiàn)，可能會阻礙普通話的軟實力傳播。

Regionalization Trends: A Multipolar Linguistic Future

區(qū)域化趨勢：多極化的語言未來

Spanish and French: Spanish’s expansion in Latin America and French’s "Francophonie" network in Africa may carve out regional lingua francas, diverting attention from both English and Mandarin .

西班牙語和法語：西班牙語在拉丁美洲的擴(kuò)張和法語在非洲的“法語國家組織”可能會形成區(qū)域通用語，從而分散對英語和普通話的注意力。

Digital Vernaculars: While English still dominates 54% of internet content, Mandarin’s 1 billion+ users on platforms like Douyin (TikTok) are reshaping digital communication, potentially creating "digital dialects" .

數(shù)字白話：雖然英語仍然占據(jù)54%的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)內(nèi)容，但普通話在抖音（TikTok）等平臺上的10億多用戶正在重塑數(shù)字通信，可能創(chuàng)造出“數(shù)字方言”。

Future Scenarios: Coexistence, Not Replacement

未來情景：共存而非取代

Optimistic Outlook: By 2050, Mandarin could emerge as East Asia’s regional lingua franca, coexisting with English in global trade and science. ASEAN nations might adopt bilingual business practices.

樂觀展望：到2050年，普通話可能成為東亞的區(qū)域通用語，在全球貿(mào)易和科學(xué)領(lǐng)域與英語共存。東盟國家可能采取雙語商業(yè)慣例。

Neutral Outlook: English retains global primacy, but Mandarin establishes niche authority in fields like traditional Chinese medicine and high-speed rail. Chinese-led standards bodies (e.g., ISO/TC 289) promote Mandarin technical documentation.

中性展望：英語保持全球首要地位，但普通話在傳統(tǒng)中醫(yī)和高速鐵路等領(lǐng)域建立起利基權(quán)威。中國主導(dǎo)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)機(jī)構(gòu)（如ISO/TC 289）推廣普通話技術(shù)文檔。

Pessimistic Outlook: Geopolitical conflicts or economic fragmentation weaken globalization, allowing regional languages (Arabic, Hindi) to rise as English and Mandarin lose ground.

悲觀展望：地緣政治沖突或經(jīng)濟(jì)碎片化削弱全球化，使得阿拉伯語、印地語等區(qū)域語言崛起，而英語和普通話則失去陣地。

Expert Forecasts and Data

專家預(yù)測和數(shù)據(jù)

The Economist Intelligence Unit: English will remain the global lingua franca through 2100, though Mandarin may gain traction as a business L2 in Belt and Road nations.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人智庫：到2100年，英語仍將是全球通用語，盡管普通話可能在“一帶一路”沿線國家作為商業(yè)第二語言獲得發(fā)展。

Ethnologue 2024: Mandarin’s L2 learner growth (12% annually) outpaces English (3%), but English still dominates cross-border communication .

民族語2024：普通話第二語言學(xué)習(xí)者的年增長率（12%）超過英語（3%），但英語仍然在跨境交流中占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。
George Weber’s Model: English scores 37/100 in 綜合影響力，far exceeding Mandarin’s 13/100, due to its wider geopolitical and economic reach .
喬治·韋伯模型：由于其更廣泛的地緣政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)影響力，英語在綜合影響力方面得分為37/100，遠(yuǎn)超普通話的13/100。

Conclusion: While Mandarin’s influence is expanding, it is highly unlikely to surpass English as the global lingua franca. Instead, a "layered coexistence" may emerge, where English retains its universal role while Mandarin thrives in regional and specialized domains. The future linguistic landscape will likely be multipolar, reflecting the world’s evolving geopolitical and economic realities.

結(jié)論：雖然普通話的影響力正在擴(kuò)大，但它極不可能超越英語成為全球通用語。相反，可能會出現(xiàn)“分層共存”的局面，即英語保持其通用地位，而普通話在區(qū)域和專業(yè)領(lǐng)域蓬勃發(fā)展。未來的語言格局很可能是多極化的，反映世界不斷變化的地緣政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)實。
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Authoritative Sources:

權(quán)威來源：

Language statistics: Ethnologue 2024
Scientific publication trends: China Science and Technology Journal Development Blue Book 2024
Economic impact analysis: China Belt and Road Initiative Trade Data
Linguistic competitiveness model: George Weber’s World Language Rankings

語言統(tǒng)計：民族語2024
科學(xué)出版趨勢：《2024年中國科技期刊發(fā)展藍(lán)皮書》
經(jīng)濟(jì)影響分析：“一帶一路”倡議貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)
語言競爭力模型：喬治·韋伯世界語言排名

Adam Wu
About half as likely as the Chinese at some point switching to an Alphabetic writing scxt.

大約只有中國人未來某個時候改用字母文字的一半可能性。

Only an alphabetic based writing system will ever work as a global lingua franca in the modern world.

在現(xiàn)代世界，只有基于字母的文字系統(tǒng)才能成為全球通用語。

(And a world without modern communications technology will never have need of a global lingua Franca.)

（一個沒有現(xiàn)代通信技術(shù)的世界永遠(yuǎn)不需要全球通用語。）

Otherwise, even in a hypothetical future world where China becomes the dominant economic and military power and displaces English speaking countries in that role, we are not likely to see Mandarin become a global lingua Franca. Instead we are more likely to see a world with no global lingua Franca which instead heavily uses advanced AI algorithms to translate communications into local languages in real time.

否則，即使在假設(shè)的未來世界中，中國成為主要的經(jīng)濟(jì)和軍事強國并取代英語國家扮演這一角色，我們也不太可能看到普通話成為全球通用語。相反，我們更有可能看到一個沒有全球通用語的世界，這個世界將大量使用先進(jìn)的AI算法將通信實時翻譯成當(dāng)?shù)卣Z言。

Chris Hartono
In Indonesia, there are some Chinese company running their business. Sometime, Their recruitment processes prioritize candidates who possess Mandarin language skills. They also offer positions specifically for Mandarin translators to support expatriates from China. Some of Indonesian people start to learn Mandarin for get a job. Maybe it is little percentage from ±280 million people in Indonesia, but it increase as long as I know. There are some people like to know Chinese cultural and Chinese movie / drama.

在印度尼西亞，有一些中國公司在運營業(yè)務(wù)。有時，他們的招聘過程優(yōu)先考慮那些具備普通話語言技能的候選人。他們還提供專門的普通話翻譯職位，以支持來自中國的 expatriates（外籍人士）。一些印尼人開始學(xué)習(xí)普通話以獲得工作。也許這在印尼約2.8億人口中只占很小的比例，但據(jù)我所知，這個比例正在增加。有些人喜歡了解中國文化和中國電影/電視劇。

I don’t know the future is Mandarin will be really spread and surpass English as the global lingua franca or not. But, they have soft influence by their economic. They build representative office and manufacturing plant in another country. However, it's definite that there will be a rise in the number of non-Mainland Chinese individuals studying Mandarin for communication with those from Mainland China.

我不知道未來普通話是否會真正傳播并超越英語成為全球通用語。但是，他們通過經(jīng)濟(jì)擁有軟實力。他們在其他國家建立代表處和制造工廠。然而，可以肯定的是，為了與來自中國大陸的人交流，學(xué)習(xí)普通話的非中國大陸人士的數(shù)量將會增加。

Note: I’m sorry for my broken english.

注：抱歉我的英語不好。

Eric Lee
0 chance.

零可能性。

Chinese is hard even for native Chinese people. There is literally an exam called the Hanyu Shuping Kaoshi where teenaged students must all take and pass to prove their proficiency in the Chinese language. And not every student passes.

中文即使對中國人來說也很難。實際上有一個叫做漢語水平考試（HSK）的考試，所有青少年學(xué)生都必須參加并通過，以證明他們的中文水平。而且并非所有學(xué)生都能通過。

Historically for thousands of years, only Chinese royalty and noblemen were educated. Only they could afford the education to even learn how to read and write. Chinese peasants were all uneducated and couldn’t read or write in their own written language.

歷史上數(shù)千年來，只有中國的皇室和貴族才接受教育。只有他們才能負(fù)擔(dān)得起學(xué)習(xí)讀寫的教育。中國農(nóng)民都是文盲，無法讀寫自己的文字。

In fact, one of the major changes to permanently change the Chinese civilization is how the com...st Party mandated that all citizens in China be educated. Even poor people in China today are guaranteed a stipend from the government and basic rights like education and healthcare. There are also food programs for the poor.

事實上，永久改變中華文明的重大變革之一是中國***強制所有中國公民接受教育。即使是今天的中國窮人也能得到政府的津貼以及教育和醫(yī)療保健等基本權(quán)利。還有針對窮人的食物計劃。 (***政黨或名字上下同)

Chinese characters are also just entirely different from any other written language in the world . They are not an alphabet, where letters represent phonetic sounds. They are all symbols which represent words. So knowing what a Chinese character means doesn’t tell you anything whatsoever about how it’s supposed to sound like. Me as a Cantonese person will speak a character completely differently from how a Mandarin speaker will speak it. We will be able to know what the character means though, but again not be speaking the same language. And there are dozens of different Sinitic languages/ dialects which don’t sound anything alike to each other.

中文漢字也與世界上任何其他書寫語言完全不同。它們不是字母文字，字母代表語音。它們都是代表單詞的符號。因此，知道一個漢字的意思并不能告訴你它的發(fā)音。我作為一個說粵語的人，會用與說普通話的人完全不同的方式發(fā)同一個漢字。我們都能知道這個漢字的意思，但我們說的不是同一種語言。而且有幾十種不同的漢藏語/方言，它們的發(fā)音彼此完全不同。

So since Chinese is very hard even for us, it’s literally impossible for non Chinese people to easily absorb the language. The Foreign Service Institute or FSI ranks all Chinese languages/ dialects like Cantonese and Mandarin as hard Category 5 languages. The highest level of difficulty for a person to learn and understand.

因此，既然中文對我們來說都非常難，那么對于非中國人來說，輕松掌握這門語言簡直是不可能的。美國國務(wù)院外交學(xué)院（FSI）將所有漢語/方言（如粵語和普通話）都列為難度最高的第五類語言。這是個人學(xué)習(xí)和理解的最高難度級別。

David Forbes
Unlikely- but not impossible.

不太可能，但并非不可能。

I worked for a year in China, and I met a couple of medical students from Africa (Sierra Leone, I think). They spoke fluent Chinese and were being sponsored by the Chinese government to train as doctors before going back home to practise. This is the kind of soft power that helps a lingua franca spread. Also, while I was there, I met a number of foreigners who had learned enough of the language to be considered competent, if not fluent. It can be done, but it does take effort.

我在中國工作了一年，遇到幾位來自非洲（我想是塞拉利昂）的醫(yī)學(xué)生。他們說一口流利的中文，并由中國政府資助進(jìn)行醫(yī)生培訓(xùn)，然后回國執(zhí)業(yè)。這是一種有助于通用語傳播的軟實力。此外，我在那里時，遇到了一些外國人，他們已經(jīng)學(xué)會了足夠的中文，即使不算流利，也算得上熟練。這是可以做到的，但確實需要付出努力。

But, I don’t think there will be a next Lingua Franca. Lingua Francas develop because they are the only way to communicate when different speech communities come into contact. By everyone knowing that English, or Swahili or Arabic, is the language most likely to be understood, there is an expectation that those are the languages people will learn before they go out into the world. This then becomes self-fulfilling.

但是，我認(rèn)為不會再出現(xiàn)下一個通用語了。通用語的產(chǎn)生是因為當(dāng)不同的語言社群接觸時，它們是唯一的溝通方式。當(dāng)大家都知道英語、斯瓦希里語或阿拉伯語是最有可能被理解的語言時，就會形成一種預(yù)期，即人們在走向世界之前會學(xué)習(xí)這些語言。然后，這就會變成一種自我實現(xiàn)的預(yù)言。

But we now have machine translation, for free and on our phones. Who needs a Lingua Franca any more? Unless someone is involved in very high-level interaction with a language, for example, literary or legal translation, Google Translate is the most effective way to communicate across language barriers. We don't need another Lingua Franca.

但是我們現(xiàn)在有了機(jī)器翻譯，免費且在我們的手機(jī)上就能使用。誰還需要通用語呢？除非有人參與非常高層次的語言互動，例如文學(xué)或法律翻譯，否則谷歌翻譯是跨越語言障礙最有效的方式。我們不需要另一個通用語。

QA回答：普通話超越英語成為全球通用語的可能性有多大？

QA回答：普通話超越英語成為全球通用語的可能性有多大？