QA:雖然有人說伊朗對以色列的襲擊是一次戰(zhàn)略失敗，但我們怎么知道伊朗這樣做不是為了迷惑以色列？

In Native-American traditions, there was such a thing as “Counting Coup.” Battles didn’t always have to result in bloodshed and death. Sometimes, simply touching the enemy in battle was enough to establish honor and bravery in a warrior. They didn’t have to kill, just do something to prove that they could be very dangerous.
I think counting coup is what Iran is doing here. Israel, is now duty bound to do the same. So, we’ll likely see a response. Israel is clearly taking their time to think about how to respond. If they get it right, then Iran will protest publicly, and then privately, heave a sigh of relief that the whole dirty business concluded without too much damage.

在美國原住民的傳統(tǒng)中，有一種叫做“計數(shù)政變”的說法。戰(zhàn)爭并不總是會導(dǎo)致流血和死亡。有時，在戰(zhàn)斗中，僅僅是觸摸敵人，就足以在戰(zhàn)士身上樹立榮譽(yù)和勇氣。他們不必殺人，只需做一些事情來證明自己可能非常危險。
我認(rèn)為伊朗在這里所做的就是計數(shù)政變。以色列現(xiàn)在也有義務(wù)這樣做。因此，我們很可能會看到回應(yīng)。以色列顯然正在慢慢考慮如何應(yīng)對。如果他們做對了，那么伊朗將公開抗議，然后在沒有造成太大損害的情況下私下里做點骯臟的交易，并為此松一口氣。
計數(shù)政變：表現(xiàn)自己的勇敢，獲得威望，打擊敵人自尊心，但不傷害敵人身體。包括：恐嚇、說服對方承認(rèn)自己的失敗等等。

CE Iannuzzi
Everyone wants a PR success.
The basic attack was mostly just dummy drones and cruise missiles, and then a few ballistic missiles to hit IDF military installations out in the desert.
The IDF now claims that intercepting the attack cost them over a billion dollars.
From an Iranian perspective, it wasn’t a failure. It showed that they can use drone and cruise missile swarms to overwhelm the US’s and IDF’s air defenses in the region. And if they really want to attack Israel to do damage, they will need to use ballistic missiles.
But think about the other side of that—that a few million dollars in dummy drones invokes a billion dollar response. LOL.
I think we pretty much knew that all along though.

每個國家都希望獲得公關(guān)上的成功。
基礎(chǔ)的攻擊，大多是無人機(jī)和巡航導(dǎo)彈，然后是幾枚彈道導(dǎo)彈，擊中了沙漠中的以色列國防軍軍事設(shè)施。
以色列國防軍現(xiàn)在聲稱，攔截這次襲擊使他們損失了10多億美元。
從伊朗的角度來看，這并不是一次失敗。它表明，他們可以使用無人機(jī)和巡航導(dǎo)彈群來壓倒美國和以色列國防軍在該地區(qū)的防空系統(tǒng)。如果他們真的想攻擊以色列并造成破壞，他們將需要使用彈道導(dǎo)彈。
但想想另一方面——應(yīng)對數(shù)百萬美元的無人機(jī)，需要花費數(shù)十億美元。哈哈哈。
我想我們一直都知道這一點。

Doug
Iran’s attack on Israel served the regime’s purposes. They cannot very well show weakness by letting the Israelis kill some of the generals they’d sent to kill Israelis. So they fire off a bunch of missiles and cheer. Now they’ve shown strength. Whether or not the missiles got anything.
But there’s a second purpose. They learned a lot about Israeli defenses. If they decide in the end on war, they have a better idea of what is and is not possible.

伊朗對以色列的攻擊符合該政權(quán)的目的。以色列人殺掉了他們派去殺害以色列人的將軍，伊朗不能表現(xiàn)得軟弱。所以他們發(fā)射了一堆導(dǎo)彈并為此歡呼。現(xiàn)在他們展現(xiàn)出了力量。不管導(dǎo)彈有沒有炸毀任何東西。
但還有第二個目的。他們學(xué)到了很多關(guān)于以色列防御的知識。如果他們最終決定戰(zhàn)爭，他們會更好地了解什么是不可能的。

Zaheer Hussain
To me it looks more successful than many pro-Israeli think.
Iran informed many countries 72 hours before attack thus its impossible that information hadn't reached UK USA or Israel. Thus Israel knew very well in advance about attack and was fully prepared. British PM is also on record saying that UK specially SENT RAF to defend Israel. Means that ISRAEL ALONE CAN NOT FIGHT. So in extended war can it fight and how long. After 1967 & 1973 Israel never fought a war but small fights with Hizbullah in 2006. Even there it got a defeat & was forced to end two decades of occupation of South Lebanon.
Iranian Foreign Minister is on record saying they didnt target civilian areas. Thus no visible destruction like Israeli actions show in Gaza. But next time Iran may not follow this policy.
SUCCESS is that IRANIAN MISSILES REACHED ISRAEL.
The impact of Israel as the only and dominant power in mideast is smashed. It has boosted the morale of Palestinian. One could see on TV channels how they came out and celebrated on streets of broken Gaza. It will create more confidence in Hizbullah & Houthis. In wars its high-moral that matters most.
Success is that it broke the hype on western media which showed all the time that Iran is far behind the world and technologically very poor. All ‘Made in Iran’ will increase its market value.

在我看來，這次行動比許多親以色列的人想象的更成功。
伊朗在襲擊發(fā)生前72小時通知了許多國家，因此信息不可能沒有到達(dá)英國、美國或以色列。因此，以色列很早就知道了這次襲擊，并做好了充分的準(zhǔn)備。
英國首相還公開表示，英國特意派遣了英國皇家空軍保衛(wèi)了以色列。意味著以色列不能單獨作戰(zhàn)。所以，在長期的戰(zhàn)爭中，以色列可以堅持多久？
1967年和1973年之后，以色列從未打過一場戰(zhàn)爭，只是在2006年與真主黨進(jìn)行了小規(guī)模的戰(zhàn)斗。即使是這樣的戰(zhàn)斗，它也失敗了，被迫結(jié)束了對黎巴嫩南部20年的占領(lǐng)。
伊朗外交部長公開表示，他們沒有針對平民區(qū)。因此，沒有像以色列在加沙的行動那樣，造成明顯的破壞。但下一次伊朗可能不會遵循這一政策。
成功是伊朗導(dǎo)彈抵達(dá)了以色列。
這次的行動打破了以色列是中東地區(qū)唯一和占主導(dǎo)地位的力量的影響力。它鼓舞了巴勒斯坦人的士氣。人們可以在電視頻道上看到他們是如何在破碎的加沙街頭出來慶祝的。這將給真主黨和胡塞帶來更多的信心。在戰(zhàn)爭中，站在道義制高點是最重要的。
成功的地方在于，它打破了西方媒體一直以來的炒作，即伊朗遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于世界，技術(shù)非常落后。所有的“伊朗制造”都將增加其市場價值。

Pete Singh
It was a strategic failure because the Islamic Republic of Iran did expect to cause some casualties & damage to infrastructure.
However, Iran had to be careful in their targets for three reasons: avoid hitting holy city of Jerusalem, avoid hitting the Arab settlements & not escalate.
Israel has won the argument. It defended itself, got support of many countries (inc Arab some states) & given Israel green light to target inside Iran.
Whole war has now changed from a Hamas v Israel to a Shia Iran v anti-Iran alliance. Iran is now worried about internal escalation (anti-Islamists, separatists, etc).

這是一次戰(zhàn)略失敗，因為伊朗的確是想要造成一些人員傷亡和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施損壞。
然而，伊朗必須謹(jǐn)慎對待他們的目標(biāo)，原因有三：避免襲擊圣城耶路撒冷，避免襲擊阿拉伯定居點，避免沖突升級。
以色列贏得了這場爭論。它保衛(wèi)了自己，得到了許多國家（包括阿拉伯國家）的支持，并為以色列瞄準(zhǔn)伊朗國內(nèi)的行為開了綠燈。
整個戰(zhàn)爭現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)從哈馬斯 VS 以色列,變成了伊朗什葉派 VS 反伊朗聯(lián)盟。伊朗現(xiàn)在需要擔(dān)心內(nèi)部沖突升級（反伊斯蘭主義者、分裂主義者等）

YD
Some people cannot accept losing. Any other country including U S hit with the amount of drones, rockets and missiles would of suffered huge lose of lives and destruction. The Iranian attack on Israel hit a wall of state of the art defense system that no other nation posses.
The Iranian tried to cause severe damages and failed to do so.

有些人不能接受失敗。
任何其他國家，包括美國，都有可能在遭受大量無人機(jī)、火箭和導(dǎo)彈的襲擊后，造成巨大的生命損失和破壞。
伊朗對以色列的襲擊碰壁了。因為他們遭遇了其他國家所沒有的最先進(jìn)的防御系統(tǒng)。
伊朗人試圖造成嚴(yán)重?fù)p失，但沒有成功。

Syed Mehdi
It was deliberately a drama by Iran. They used very simple weapons and also informed everyone including Israel and USA and the countries airspace they used. It meant a restricted performance to let others know know that they are capable. It also cost Israel 1.5 billion dollars. It was win win for both. But then Israel is a spoiled child and can’t be controlled. It’s up to Israel to how far they want to plunge the world in to a bigger war.

這是伊朗故意制造的一場鬧劇。他們使用了非常簡單的武器，還通知了包括以色列和美國在內(nèi)的所有需要使用他們領(lǐng)空的國家。
這意味著，這是一場限制性的表演，讓其他人知道他們有能力。它還花費了以色列15億美元。這是雙方的雙贏。
但以色列是一個被寵壞的孩子，無法控制。以色列想讓世界陷入一場更大的戰(zhàn)爭中。

Kai
That's pure propaganda. Something like this has never been done in modern history. Israel and the US are scared shitless. US has came out and said they will not support Israel in an attack against Iran.
First of all, Iran has hypersonic missiles that can hit Israel in 400 seconds and are very hard to stop. Hezbollah, Iraqi, and Syrian resistance can also hit Israel in no time at all. Instead they began by sending slow moving drones from Iran to warn Israel and give them hours to prepare and call allies.
The attack cost them 10s of millions, but cost Israel and its allies billions to defend against it. They could've kept up the attack all day if they wanted and at a higher intensity. Most of the missiles they used were old slow moving ones that could easily be shot down. Some of their expensive missiles hit bases by confusing their iron dome. They hit an airbase which was used to bomb the consulate and Gaza.
They only targeted military installations because they didn't want to start a war, only show Israel and the US that they better not try anything stupid. Since no one died, Israel can say it was a “successful defense” and everyone can go home looking like winners. Whether Netanyahu takes the hint or not is a different story.

失敗純粹是宣傳。這樣的事情在現(xiàn)代史上從未發(fā)生過。以色列和美國怕得要死。美國公開表示，他們不會支持以色列對伊朗發(fā)動襲擊。
首先，伊朗擁有高超音速導(dǎo)彈，可以在400秒內(nèi)擊中以色列，而且很難阻止。真主黨、伊拉克和敘利亞的抵抗也可能在短時間內(nèi)襲擊以色列。但事實是，他們在最開始只是從伊朗派遣行動緩慢的無人機(jī)警告以色列，并給了他們幾個小時的時間做準(zhǔn)備和打電話給盟友。
這次襲擊使他們損失了1000萬美元，但以色列及其盟友為此付出了數(shù)十億美元的防御代價。如果他們愿意，他們本可以以更高的強(qiáng)度持續(xù)一整天的襲擊。
他們使用的大多數(shù)導(dǎo)彈都是移動緩慢的老式導(dǎo)彈，很容易被擊落。他們的一些昂貴的導(dǎo)彈在鐵穹的視線被混淆后擊中了基地。他們襲擊了一個用來轟炸領(lǐng)事館和加沙的空軍基地。
他們只是針對軍事設(shè)施，因為他們不想發(fā)動戰(zhàn)爭，只是為了向以色列和美國表明，他們最好不要嘗試任何愚蠢的事情。由于沒有人死亡，以色列可以說這是一次“成功的防御”，每個人都可以像勝利者一樣回家。至于內(nèi)塔尼亞胡是否接受了暗示，這就是另外一件事情了。

Harry
Israel currently has become a nation that is always looking for war. A liberal Israeli Jewish friend of mine once told me that Israel is becoming more & more hardline extremist and there is no room for straight thinking people there. As such, the extremist Zionists are always look for not just war but for victories even if it is against babies in cribs, to prove they are better than liberal Jews.
With this attack, Iran has proven the point that Israel is not untouchable. But this time they had informed USA, China, Russia & neighbours in advance what they are going to do. They had support of most UN members. It was all around good response by Iran, and Israel looks like a spoilt bully.

以色列目前已經(jīng)成為一個總是尋求戰(zhàn)爭的國家。我的一位自由派以色列猶太朋友曾告訴我，以色列正變成越來越強(qiáng)硬的極端主義者，那里沒有思想正直的人的容身之地。極端猶太復(fù)國主義者總是不僅尋求戰(zhàn)爭，而且尋求勝利。就算是要針對在嬰兒床上的嬰兒，他們也要證明他們比自由派猶太人更好。
通過這次襲擊，伊朗已經(jīng)證明了以色列不是不可觸碰的。但這一次，他們提前通知了美國、中國、俄羅斯和鄰國，他們將要做什么。
他們得到了大多數(shù)聯(lián)合國成員國的支持。這一切都是伊朗的良好回應(yīng)，而以色列看起來就像一個被寵壞的惡霸。