伊朗對(duì)以色列的攻擊：中東即將發(fā)生戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)嗎？
Iran’s Attack on Israel: Is the Middle East About to Go to War?
譯文簡(jiǎn)介
網(wǎng)友：中東要開戰(zhàn)了？？多么新穎而史無前例的一系列事件。
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Middle East going to war?? What a novel and unprecedented series of events.
中東要開戰(zhàn)了？？多么新穎而史無前例的一系列事件。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
All I ask is that I get to play gta6 before I get drafted and killed in some corner of a foreign field
我所期望的只是在被征召并且在某個(gè)外國(guó)戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)被殺之前能玩上gta6。
On one side of the conflict: my tax dollars at work
On the other side: somehow also my tax dollars
在沖突的一邊：我的稅款在起作用
在另一邊：不知何故也是我的稅款
9:10 I appreciate that you all emphasized that this was a retaliatory strike from Iran -- I've seen too much coverage that ignores or downplays that aspect.
9:10 我很感激你們都強(qiáng)調(diào)這是伊朗的報(bào)復(fù)性打擊 —— 我看到了太多忽視或淡化這一方面的報(bào)道。
If anything the attack shows Iran much prefers proxy warfare over anything direct.
如果有什么的話，這次襲擊表明伊朗更喜歡代理戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)而不是直接行動(dòng)。
Well done. I follow this situation pretty closely and almost clicked away thinking I already knew most of it. However I kept going and was very impressed. You presented new information and images as well as discussing reasonable scenarios. Keep it up!
做得好。我對(duì)這個(gè)情況非常關(guān)注，幾乎要點(diǎn)擊離開，以為我已經(jīng)了解了大部分內(nèi)容。然而我繼續(xù)閱讀下去，非常印象深刻。你提供了新的信息和圖片，并討論了合理的情景。繼續(xù)保持！
I feel like people are missing the point that it’s not how Iran reacted, it’s how Israel will retaliate.
我覺得人們忽略了一個(gè)重點(diǎn)，那就是不是伊朗如何反應(yīng)，而是以色列將如何報(bào)復(fù)。
Surely the financial cost is far worse for Israel, no? All those defense systems cost more to run than the Iranian weaponry.
以色列的財(cái)務(wù)成本肯定更嚴(yán)重，不是嗎？所有那些防御系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行成本都比伊朗的武器更高。
I have yet to watch to the end so I don't know if it's mentioned but something that is rarely mentioned is the fact that even Saudi Arabia was involved in the defense. Though they never formally contacted Israel and co. as far as I'm aware. But when the dust settles, Saudi officials released a statement claiming they believe the entire war was engineered by Iran to drive a wedge between the normalisation negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. This specific attack might ironically bring more peace lol
我還沒有看到結(jié)尾，所以我不知道是否提到了，但很少有人提到的是沙特阿拉伯甚至參與了防御。雖然據(jù)我所知，他們從未正式與以色列等人聯(lián)系過。但當(dāng)塵埃落定時(shí)，沙特官員發(fā)布了一份聲明，聲稱他們相信整個(gè)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)是伊朗策劃的，旨在在以色列和沙特阿拉伯的正?；勁兄g制造裂痕。這次特定的攻擊可能具有諷刺意味，可能帶來更多的和平哈哈哈。
Just found your channel, your videos are incredibly well put together, explanations that are this clear and concise are hard to find. Thank you for your hard work.
剛發(fā)現(xiàn)你的頻道，你的視頻做得非常出色，這樣清晰簡(jiǎn)潔的解釋很難找到。感謝你們的辛勤工作。
Excellent episode.. definitely “yes” to the proposed episode on the Middle East war
精彩的一集..絕對(duì)支持關(guān)于中東戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的提議。
Would love to see a more detailed look at how that war could look, always educational when you do these videos
希望看到更詳細(xì)地探討這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)可能會(huì)如何的內(nèi)容，每當(dāng)你們做這些視頻時(shí)都很有教育意義。
I know you needed time to research verify and edit but I’ve been visiting the channel waiting for this exposé for days
我知道你們需要時(shí)間去研究、核實(shí)和編輯，但我已經(jīng)訪問了這個(gè)頻道幾天了，等待著這個(gè)曝光報(bào)道。
I think we definitely need to deep dive this given its gravitas.
考慮到它的重要性，我認(rèn)為我們確實(shí)需要深入挖掘這個(gè)問題。
Lets not forget Iran's long history of disregard to foreign embassies. Seems a bit hypocritical for them to blame Israel, when it wasn't even the embassy itself, rather a building in the compound, which served to coordinate attacks against Israel...
讓我們不要忘記伊朗無視外國(guó)使館的悠久歷史。他們指責(zé)以色列似乎有點(diǎn)虛偽，因?yàn)樽锟準(zhǔn)咨踔敛皇谴笫桂^本身，而是使館院子里的一棟建筑，它負(fù)責(zé)協(xié)調(diào)對(duì)以色列的襲擊……
2011 - UK embassy in Iran is attacked
1992 - Israel's embassy in Argentina is bombed, killing 29, Argentina's court found Iran was behind the bombing.
1979年的今天，美國(guó)駐伊朗大使館遭到襲擊，使館工作人員被俘虜
2011年，英國(guó)駐伊朗大使館遭到襲擊
1992年，以色列駐阿根廷大使館被炸，造成29人死亡，阿根廷法院發(fā)現(xiàn)伊朗是幕后主使。
Another great summary and analysis of a geopolitical flashpoint. Thanks for being an obxtive and informative news source. I would greatly appreciate an in-depth analysis of the downstream implications of a full blown Israeli-Iranian war (e.g. the impact on global oil supplies).
又一個(gè)對(duì)地緣政治閃點(diǎn)的出色總結(jié)和分析。感謝您作為客觀和信息豐富的新聞來源。我非常希望對(duì)一場(chǎng)全面爆發(fā)的以色列-伊朗戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的下游影響進(jìn)行深入分析（例如對(duì)全球石油供應(yīng)的影響）。
We definitely need a full length episode on this developing situation.
我們絕對(duì)需要一集完整的關(guān)于這一事態(tài)發(fā)展的劇集。
I'm very happy that my country is not directly involved in what is a rapidly deteriorating situation
我很高興我國(guó)沒有直接卷入迅速惡化的局勢(shì)
We Iranians are not represented by the mullahs! Know that those who try to defend the IRGC are not Iranian and they support our people's suffering!
毛拉不能代表我們伊朗人!要知道，那些試圖捍衛(wèi)革命衛(wèi)隊(duì)的人不是伊朗人，他們支持我們?nèi)嗣竦目嚯y!
Excellent and informative. I’d almost forgotten what’s it’s like to hear a discussion of facts rather than a stream of biased rhetoric.
很棒，內(nèi)容豐富。我?guī)缀跬浟寺牭綄?duì)事實(shí)的討論而不是一連串帶有偏見的修辭是什么感覺。
Isn't attacking embassy grounds just the same as attacking the sovereign territory of the embassy's nation?
or did I hear you just blurt out it isn't Simon?
攻擊使館不就是攻擊使館所在國(guó)的主權(quán)領(lǐng)土嗎?
還是我聽到你脫口而出那不是西蒙?
The revolution will not be televised but it will be available as a TikTok video.
這場(chǎng)革命不會(huì)在電視上播出，但會(huì)以TikTok視頻的形式出現(xiàn)。
Iran sends a few tens of millions worth of ordinances, Israel defends itself by expending an estimated $1 billion in air defense capability… Not exactly a win for Israel either I’d say.
伊朗派遣了價(jià)值數(shù)千萬美元的軍令，以色列通過花費(fèi)大約10億美元的防空能力來保護(hù)自己，我想說以色列也不是真正的勝利。
I honestly think although they had a general knowledge Nato and the west in a whole are more powerful. I don't think Iran realised exactly how advanced the UK, USA and IDFs Air defense systems truly we're, or the fact of how well organised the five eyes, nato and west are. There's been a long assumption nato are asleep. That clearly isn't true and if they didnt before, Iran now know that taking us head on in an all out war is mass suicide.
我真誠(chéng)地認(rèn)為，盡管他們對(duì)北約和西方有一些常識(shí)，但北約和整個(gè)西方更強(qiáng)大。我不認(rèn)為伊朗意識(shí)到英國(guó)、美國(guó)和以色列國(guó)防軍的防空系統(tǒng)有多么先進(jìn)，或者五眼聯(lián)盟、北約和西方有多么有組織。長(zhǎng)期以來一直有一種假設(shè)，即北約正在沉睡。顯然這不是真的，如果他們之前沒有意識(shí)到，現(xiàn)在伊朗知道直接與我們?nèi)骈_戰(zhàn)等于是自殺。
Hi Simon can you and the team do a video on how countries defend against nuclear weapons?
Cos it seems strange that (as far as I’m aware) the only or main way nations counter a nuclear strike is to just launch their own nukes!!! Thanks mate
嗨西蒙，你和團(tuán)隊(duì)可以做一個(gè)視頻介紹各國(guó)如何防御核武器嗎？因?yàn)槲矣X得很奇怪（就我所知），國(guó)家應(yīng)對(duì)核打擊的主要或唯一方式是發(fā)射自己的核彈！謝謝伙計(jì)
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
Something I feel missed in the analysis is the cost and amount of Isreali defence, I think I read somewhere that the Isreali defence of the attack was 10 times more expensive then the Iranian attack, and in the case of full blown war the "Iron dome" will likly be occupied with Hizaballa attacks from Lebanon
我覺得在分析中遺漏了以色列防御的成本和數(shù)量，我想我在某個(gè)地方讀到以色列防御攻擊的成本是伊朗攻擊的10倍，在全面戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的情況下，“鐵穹”可能會(huì)被來自黎巴嫩的真主黨襲擊所占領(lǐng)
Quite canny of Iran to give notice of the strike thereby demonstrating capability without causing casualties, a bit of minor damage to an airbase isn't much to claim an existential threat to which an overwhelming response is an absolute necessity. The idea that the attack was meant to do more damage doesn't make sense. Israeli media are reporting the war as lost as the declared aim of deleting Hamas is apparently nowhere close to completion.
伊朗非常精明地發(fā)出了打擊通知，從而在不造成人員傷亡的情況下展示了自己的能力，對(duì)空軍基地的一點(diǎn)輕微破壞并不足以構(gòu)成生存威脅，對(duì)這種威脅進(jìn)行壓倒性的回應(yīng)是絕對(duì)必要的。認(rèn)為這次襲擊是為了造成更大傷害的想法是沒有道理的。以色列媒體報(bào)道說，這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)已經(jīng)失敗，因?yàn)樾Q的消滅哈馬斯的目標(biāo)顯然遠(yuǎn)未完成。
It doesn't even matter if it meant or didn't meant to damage Israel. The bigger point here is Israel attacked a sovereign nation unprovoked FIRST.
它是否有意傷害以色列都不重要。更重要的一點(diǎn)是，以色列首先無緣無故地攻擊了一個(gè)主權(quán)國(guó)家。
That had to be a embarrassment for Iran
這對(duì)伊朗來說肯定是件尷尬的事
let’s just ignore that Israel bombed Iran’s embassy in Syria
讓我們忽略以色列轟炸伊朗駐敘利亞大使館這件事
what do you mean that Irans strategy didn't work? Israel has the best missile defence system in the world, had the support of US and UK, Jordan and others. They had 72 hours notice and still some missiles did get through. I don't think the intention was to kill or to cause massive damage. Iran don't want war with US. Their intention was to send the message to Israel that the iron dome cannot protect them and try to make them start respecting Irans sovereignty and operating within international law
你說伊朗的策略沒有奏效是什么意思?以色列擁有世界上最好的導(dǎo)彈防御系統(tǒng)，得到了美國(guó)、英國(guó)、約旦和其他國(guó)家的支持。他們有72小時(shí)的通知，但還是有一些導(dǎo)彈通過了。我不認(rèn)為他的意圖是殺人或造成大規(guī)模破壞。伊朗不想和美國(guó)開戰(zhàn)。他們的意圖是向以色列發(fā)出信息，即鐵穹無法保護(hù)他們，并試圖讓他們開始尊重伊朗的主權(quán)，并在國(guó)際法范圍內(nèi)行事
What would a full scale war look like? How can two powers hundreds of miles apart without a common border or expeditionary capabilities really come to grips with each other beyond missile/drone/air bombardments?
全面戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)會(huì)是什么樣子?兩個(gè)相距數(shù)百英里，沒有共同邊界或遠(yuǎn)征能力的大國(guó)，怎么能在導(dǎo)彈/無人機(jī)/空中轟炸之外真正地相互較量呢?
Not being funny but you literally destroyed the embassy and killed 7 people in a country that had nothing to do with the war.
It absolutely should be expected
不是開玩笑，但你真的摧毀了大使館，在一個(gè)與戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)毫無關(guān)系的國(guó)家殺死了7個(gè)人。
這絕對(duì)是意料之中的
It's a bit disingenuous to call the attack "perplexing", Simon. Israel did openly attack an Iranian consulate, which is a violation of international law.
說這次襲擊"令人費(fèi)解"有點(diǎn)虛偽，西蒙。以色列確實(shí)公開襲擊了伊朗領(lǐng)事館，這違反了國(guó)際法。
Awesome Episode as always, but i just cant stand those underlayed background sounds which sound like goin on in your environment, thats awful when you try to concentrate on something
一如既往的精彩，但我就是無法忍受那些隱藏的背景聲音，聽起來就像在你的環(huán)境中，當(dāng)你試圖集中注意力的時(shí)候，這太可怕了
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
Israel is very lucky this is all Iran wished to do. Iran made it incredibly clear well in advance of the attack, and also made it clear that this is the only attack they will send, and they wish to avoid any escalation. Israel would be incredibly dumb to retaliate to a closed matter.
以色列很幸運(yùn)，這正是伊朗所希望的。伊朗在襲擊之前就非常明確地表示，這是他們將發(fā)動(dòng)的唯一一次襲擊，他們希望避免任何升級(jí)。如果以色列對(duì)一個(gè)封閉的問題進(jìn)行報(bào)復(fù)，那將是非常愚蠢的。
The drone strike from Iran reminds me of how the IRA would plant bombs then call in the bomb threat
來自伊朗的無人機(jī)襲擊讓我想起了愛爾蘭共和軍是如何埋下炸彈然后報(bào)警的
One thing is clear, secular democratic countries should be against any theocratic government.
有一點(diǎn)是明確的，世俗民主國(guó)家應(yīng)該反對(duì)任何神權(quán)政府。
I pray to Allah the people in Jordan & Egypt remove their spineless government.
我向安拉祈禱，約旦和埃及的人民推翻他們沒有骨氣的政府。
You're using Israel propaganda and using it as fact, but Iran has to prove what they are saying?
你在利用以色列的宣傳，并把它當(dāng)作事實(shí)，但伊朗必須證明他們所說的?
The strike from Israel on the Iranian consulate was unforgivable, yet Iran still gave them a warning and heads up, & only targeted military sites. Israel should learn from that.
以色列對(duì)伊朗領(lǐng)事館的襲擊是不可原諒的，但伊朗仍然給了他們警告和提醒，而且只針對(duì)軍事地點(diǎn)。以色列應(yīng)該從中吸取教訓(xùn)。
You failed to recognize the amount of data they gathered from all the areas that shot down drones. Now they have an idea of where defenses are and how they respond
你沒有意識(shí)到他們從擊落無人機(jī)的所有地區(qū)收集到的大量數(shù)據(jù)。現(xiàn)在他們知道了防御在哪里以及它們?nèi)绾畏磻?yīng)
A veteran guy I know says that this is more of a symbolic attack and not to escalate in a full blown war as they made sure to an once the coming attacks
我認(rèn)識(shí)的一個(gè)老兵說，這更多的是一次象征性的攻擊，而不是升級(jí)為全面戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，因?yàn)樗麄兇_保一旦到來的攻擊
The question that pops into my mind is this - would a proportional response involve the wounding of one, 7 year old iranian schoolgirl, or would it involve the launch of 300 cruise missiles into Iran?
我腦海中突然出現(xiàn)的一個(gè)問題是，相稱的回應(yīng)是傷害一名7歲的伊朗女學(xué)生，還是向伊朗發(fā)射300枚巡航導(dǎo)彈?
I feel like you are brushing over the kind of importance intel on Israeli defenses are to Iran - If things don't tone down they hypothetically have more intel they can utilize against Israel
我覺得你忽略了以色列防御情報(bào)對(duì)伊朗的重要性——如果事情不緩和下來，他們假設(shè)有更多的情報(bào)可以用來對(duì)付以色列
I have been following this for awhile and i was just rolling seeing this absoulute fail of an attck this was, i already know whats whats gonna happen and how its all gonna end i just need it to end in my favor for now, i like to sit back and watch the influance from across the pond i have from a lonley guy using weed can really cause an entire country havoc on their narrative
我已經(jīng)關(guān)注了一段時(shí)間了，我只是看到了這次攻擊的絕對(duì)失敗，這是，我已經(jīng)知道會(huì)發(fā)生什么，以及它將如何結(jié)束，我現(xiàn)在只需要它以對(duì)我有利的方式結(jié)束，我喜歡坐下來觀察來自大洋彼岸的影響，一個(gè)孤獨(dú)的家伙使用大麻真的會(huì)給整個(gè)國(guó)家的敘事造成破壞
There is a chance that Israel may use its nuclear forces, if so, what is the likelihood given that Iran has been arming Russia that Russia may choose to outfit Iran with a turnkey nuclear capability?
以色列有可能使用其核力量，如果是這樣，那么考慮到伊朗一直在武裝俄羅斯，俄羅斯可能會(huì)選擇為伊朗提供全套核能力的可能性有多大?
I maintained for about a decade that Iran's regime is 1 or 2 failed military adventures from collapsing.
I guess, my hypothesis is going to be tested in coming months.
大約十年來，我一直認(rèn)為伊朗政權(quán)離崩潰只有一兩次失敗的軍事冒險(xiǎn)了。
我想，我的假設(shè)將在未來幾個(gè)月得到驗(yàn)證。
This feels different from previous escalations. This might get hot enough to ignite something bigger.
這次感覺與以往的升級(jí)有所不同。這可能會(huì)變得足夠熱烈，引發(fā)更大的事情。
Even the people with the most basic knowledge of geopolitics know that Iran had to respond, given their consulate was attacked unprovoked by the IDF.
即使對(duì)地緣政治有最基本了解的人也知道，伊朗必須做出回應(yīng)，因?yàn)樗麄兊念I(lǐng)事館被以色列國(guó)防軍無緣無故地襲擊了。
I haven’t even watched this video and I can tell how it’s gonna go: recap the events, detail different parties reactions, discuss possible modes of response, outline the possible horrible outcomes of that response and in the end say they don’t know - because no one knows. There, I saved you 20 minutes.
我甚至還沒看這個(gè)視頻，我就能知道接下來會(huì)發(fā)生什么:重述事件，詳細(xì)說明各方的反應(yīng)，討論可能的反應(yīng)模式，概述這種反應(yīng)可能帶來的可怕后果，最后說他們不知道——因?yàn)闆]人知道。好了，我?guī)湍愎?jié)省了20分鐘。
I took Peter Zeihan's position here: Iran's response was very timid and well announced, just so send a message but to cause no major damage and escalation, comparing to Israel's attack which killed high commanders. Israel should restrict itself to fighting Hamas and not expand this fight to Iran
我在這里站在皮特澤漢的立場(chǎng)上:伊朗的反應(yīng)非常怯懦，而且很好地宣布了，只是為了傳遞一個(gè)信息，但與以色列殺死高級(jí)指揮官的襲擊相比，沒有造成重大損害和升級(jí)。以色列應(yīng)該把自己限制在打擊哈馬斯上，而不是把打擊擴(kuò)大到伊朗
I think at this point we have to understand that this isn't really a war in the classical sense, (though all sides will still understandably arm themselves to a degree that is politically sensible) it's a war of international politics.
And in that respect, there is a notable and consistent shift amongst the most prominent actors in this conflict.
I don't think that there will be a notable shift in diplomacy any time soon, but the trend is clear and it is not in Israel's favor.
In that respect, Iran won this battle and is on track in winning the war.
我認(rèn)為，在這一點(diǎn)上，我們必須明白，這并不是一場(chǎng)真正意義上的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)(盡管各方仍然會(huì)在政治上合理的程度上武裝自己，這是可以理解的)，這是一場(chǎng)國(guó)際政治戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
在這方面，在這場(chǎng)沖突中最重要的角色之間存在著顯著和持續(xù)的轉(zhuǎn)變。
我認(rèn)為短期內(nèi)外交上不會(huì)有明顯的轉(zhuǎn)變，但趨勢(shì)是明確的，而且對(duì)以色列不利。
在這方面，伊朗贏得了這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)斗，并正在贏得這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
As an Israeli citizen i must say Simon’s analysis and attention to detail is so important in a world full of misinformation.
As for the content of the video itself…it really made me wonder what I even want my country to do…on one hand I’m afraid of escalation but on the other hand letting a rival country launch hundreds of missiles into our sovereign territory might really hurt are intimidation factor in the future…
Wonder what you guys think about it? Also if anyone has any interesting questions about living through this conflict i’de be happy to share my perspective
作為一個(gè)以色列公民，我必須說西蒙的分析和對(duì)細(xì)節(jié)的關(guān)注在一個(gè)充滿錯(cuò)誤信息的世界是如此重要。
至于影片本身的內(nèi)容，真的讓我想知道我到底想要我的國(guó)家做什么，一方面我害怕局勢(shì)升級(jí)，但另一方面，讓敵對(duì)國(guó)家向我們的主權(quán)領(lǐng)土發(fā)射數(shù)百枚導(dǎo)彈，可能會(huì)在未來真正傷害到我們的恐嚇因素。
不知道你們?cè)趺聪?如果有人有任何關(guān)于如何在這場(chǎng)沖突中生存的有趣問題，我很樂意分享我的觀點(diǎn)
I don't think that was an accurate statement to make: that one can intercept nukes at a high enough distance not to have any damage. High altitude detonations destroy all surrounding satellites and create a devastating EMP with an extremely extended range on the surface.
The U.S. did it just once in the Pacific and that was lesson enough not to repeat.
我不認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)準(zhǔn)確的說法:一個(gè)人可以在足夠高的距離上攔截核彈而不會(huì)造成任何傷害。高空爆炸摧毀所有周圍的衛(wèi)星，并在地面上產(chǎn)生毀滅性的電磁脈沖，其范圍極廣。
美國(guó)在太平洋只做過一次，這是一個(gè)足夠的教訓(xùn)，不會(huì)再重復(fù)了。
I'm pretty sure that Israel attacking the consulate in Syria to kill some Iranian guard was pretty escalatory and against normal international standards for that kinda thing, especially doing it in the middle of the war with Gaza and the many many seemingly creditable accusations of war crimes committed by Israel.
我敢肯定，以色列襲擊駐敘利亞領(lǐng)事館以殺死一些伊朗警衛(wèi)是相當(dāng)升級(jí)的行為，違反了此類事情的正常國(guó)際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，尤其是在與加沙的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中這樣做，而且以色列犯下了許多看似可信的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)罪行。