印度在未來成為中國(guó)的強(qiáng)勁對(duì)手，并在技術(shù)和商業(yè)領(lǐng)域（如智能手機(jī)、計(jì)算機(jī)、清潔技術(shù)、機(jī)器人、機(jī)械等）對(duì)中國(guó)采用其對(duì)美國(guó)、歐洲、日本和韓國(guó)的方式，這種做法的前景如何呢？

2023-06-11 wangniannian 16624 19 8 收藏糾錯(cuò)&舉報(bào)

譯文簡(jiǎn)介

印度與其將發(fā)展目標(biāo)瞄準(zhǔn)中國(guó)，還不如放穩(wěn)腳步，考慮自己國(guó)內(nèi)的問題，比如清理圣潔的恒河！

正文翻譯

What is the prospect of India becoming a fierce competitor to China in the future and did to China what China did to USA, Europe, Japan and S. Korea in the fields of technology and business (smartphone, computer, clean tech, robotic, machinery etc)?

印度在未來成為中國(guó)的強(qiáng)勁對(duì)手，并在技術(shù)和商業(yè)領(lǐng)域（如智能手機(jī)、計(jì)算機(jī)、清潔技術(shù)、機(jī)器人、機(jī)械等）對(duì)中國(guó)采用其對(duì)美國(guó)、歐洲、日本和韓國(guó)的方式，這種做法的前景如何呢？

評(píng)論翻譯

McDonald’s entered the Chinese and Indian markets in 1990 and 1996 respectively. Both are 1.4 billion people markets, but Mcdonald’s has 10x the number of restaurants in mainland China today, compared to India.

麥當(dāng)勞是分別于1990年和1996年進(jìn)入中國(guó)市場(chǎng)和印度市場(chǎng)的。中國(guó)和印度都擁有著十四億人口的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)。但是，和印度相比，如今的麥當(dāng)勞在中國(guó)大陸的餐廳數(shù)量是在印度餐廳數(shù)量的10倍之多。

The Germans sell more cars in China than in all of Europe combined, and still have 20 percent of the Chinese market, just like the Japanese. That’s 5 million vehicles a year, each. These juggernauts don’t do anywhere near the same business in India. Same 1.4 billion market, but Ford exited the Indian market recently.

德國(guó)人在中國(guó)銷售的汽車總量比整個(gè)歐洲銷量的總和還要多，而且德國(guó)汽車在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的占有率才只有20%，就像在日本市場(chǎng)占有情況一樣。即便如此每年也有500萬輛汽車銷量。但是，這些汽車行業(yè)的霸主在印度的業(yè)務(wù)量遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)達(dá)不到這個(gè)水平。同樣是14億市場(chǎng)，福特汽車最近選擇了退出印度市場(chǎng)。

India is more youthful, the median age being 28.7 vs. 38.4 for China. Yet the Indian workforce lags the China by 300+m, or two entire American workforces, the world’s third largest. India exports labor instead. It provides the world’s largest migrant labor pool that repatriate >3 percent of Indian GDP annually.

印度人口更加年輕化，勞動(dòng)力年齡的中位數(shù)為28.7歲，而中國(guó)則是38.4歲。然而，印度有三億多的勞動(dòng)力質(zhì)量落后于中國(guó)，這相當(dāng)于兩個(gè)美國(guó)的勞動(dòng)力，世界第三大勞動(dòng)力。但與之相反的是，印度是勞動(dòng)力輸出國(guó)。它也是世界上最大的移民勞動(dòng)力提供國(guó)，這些每年被遣返的勞動(dòng)力所創(chuàng)造的價(jià)值能占到印度GDP的3%以上。

This is the 40-year evolution of the Rupee (Orange) vs. the Yuan (Blue), measured against the USD. Post-financial crisis, the buying power diverged, despite India preceding China’s WTO accession. The Rupee has undergone unending duation for more than 7 decades, with no end in sight. India has a perennial capital account problem, despite growing into a 3 trillion dollar economy.

這是盧比（橙色）與人民幣（藍(lán)色）40年的演變，以美元為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。盡管印度先于中國(guó)加入世貿(mào)組織，但是因?yàn)榻鹑谖C(jī)的影響，盧比購買力減弱。盧比進(jìn)入了超過70年的無休止的貶值時(shí)期，而且看不到盡頭。印度雖然已經(jīng)發(fā)展成為一個(gè)3萬億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，但是它長(zhǎng)期存在著資金賬戶問題。

India has failed to attract the world because the foreigner finds it difficult to make money in India. Indian growth has been largely driven by currency duation, just like Vietnam and others enjoying a free ride courtesy of the first world’s “currency manipulation” accusations against the yuan, which is patently absurd.

印度未能吸引世界，是因?yàn)橥鈬?guó)人發(fā)現(xiàn)在印度很難賺錢。印度經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)在很大程度上是由貨幣貶值推動(dòng)的，就像越南和其他國(guó)家在第一世界國(guó)家里通過指責(zé)人民幣 "操控貨幣 "從而享受免費(fèi)的待遇一樣，而這顯然是荒謬的！
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處

India will find it way more difficult competing with China on an equal footing. When the narrative of the “Indian threat” emerges due in part to the proliferation of Indian faces among the elites of Western public life, India will face far stiffer tests. And just like covid, holes will be exploited. Discrimination knows no bounds.

印度將發(fā)現(xiàn)自己要想與中國(guó)公平競(jìng)爭(zhēng)非常困難。當(dāng) "印度威脅 "的說法出現(xiàn)時(shí)（部分原因是印度人的面孔在西方公共生活精英中的大量出現(xiàn)），印度將面臨更嚴(yán)峻的考驗(yàn)。就像covid（新冠病毒）一樣，漏洞將被利用。而歧視是無止境的！

For now, the prospect of India emerging as a “do china in” comeuppance is dim. What emerges from the cauldron of Chinese business is world class, such as tik tok, alibaba, huawei and CSCEC. We can’t say the same of Indian business.

目前，印度通過效仿中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)手段來針對(duì)中國(guó)的這種做法可能很難奏效。從中國(guó)商業(yè)大鍋里涌現(xiàn)出來的都是世界級(jí)的企業(yè)，比如抖音、阿里巴巴、華為和CSCEC。我們無法確定印度的商業(yè)也能做到這個(gè)程度。

I will sit up and pay attention when the Rupee reverses 7 decades (that’s almost one human lifetime) of duation. Or business leaders recommending India as the “next China” and “streets lined with gold”, rather than the nodding of reluctant devotees of political rhetoric.

當(dāng)盧比扭轉(zhuǎn)了70年（這幾乎是人的一生）的貶值時(shí)，我會(huì)坐起來關(guān)注?；蛘呱虡I(yè)領(lǐng)袖將印度形容為 "下一個(gè)中國(guó) "和 "街道上鋪滿黃金"，而不是政客們勉強(qiáng)點(diǎn)頭認(rèn)可時(shí)，我也會(huì)重視印度。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處

Otherwise, India will be mired in the middle income trap as China steps into high income.

否則，隨著中國(guó)步入高收入，印度將陷入中等收入的陷阱。

“Cheap” is no longer the calling card it once was, because the Chinese bled it dry with speed, quality and execution. For example, masks weren’t sourced from India over the covid pandemic, and India was unable to deliver vaccines through 2021, despite technology transfer from the west.

"廉價(jià) "不再是中國(guó)商品的名片，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)人用速度、質(zhì)量和執(zhí)行力把它榨干了。例如，在新冠期間，口罩并非是從印度采購的，即便是有西方的技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓，印度也無法在2021年之前提供疫苗。

Good luck.

祝好運(yùn)！

I'd say keep the feet planted, and think domestic, like cleaning up the holy river ganges, before shooting for the moon and aiming at China.

我想說的是，印度將發(fā)展目標(biāo)投向月球和瞄準(zhǔn)中國(guó)之前，應(yīng)先把腳步放穩(wěn)，考慮自己國(guó)內(nèi)問題，比如清理圣潔的恒河。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處

You absolutely correct

你完全正確

印度 中國(guó) 對(duì) 技術(shù) 商業(yè)領(lǐng)域 美國(guó) 歐洲日本 韓國(guó)

很贊 ( 8 )